The following is an overview of a high-stakes game that features a ticking clock:
Scepticism has been expressed by both experienced diplomats and analysts in response to the assertion made by President Donald Trump that he might negotiate a new nuclear agreement with Iran within the next two weeks. Given the complexities of the negotiations, the state of the geopolitical environment, and the persistent hostility that exists between Tehran and Washington, it is highly improbable that such a deadline will be met. This is especially true if Trump’s genuine intention is to gain time for military action rather than for diplomatic efforts.
The historical precedent for lengthy and delicate negotiations is as follows:
The process of negotiating with Iran has never been efficient. The finalization of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) during the Obama administration took close to two years. Following that, the administration of Vice President Joe Biden spent fifteen months working to revive a similar agreement, only to have Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, reject the nearly final form.
Veteran diplomats have observed that dealing with Iran needs patience, subtlety, and protracted back-and-forth. These are luxuries that are not available in the current crisis scenario. Even under reasonably tranquil conditions, working with Iran requires patience.
These are the current challenges: war clouds and a breakdown in diplomatic relations.
Today’s circumstances are very different from those of the past. One of the most influential decision-makers in Iran’s foreign policy, Ayatollah Khamenei, is apparently hiding out in the midst of the rising tensions. The Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abbas Araghchi, has stated that he is theoretically open to constraints on nuclear enrichment; nevertheless, he has categorically rejected any conversations that may take place while Israel continues to carry out attacks against Iranian military and nuclear targets.
According to statements made to reporters, President Trump looks intent on exerting pressure on Iran, stating that there are just “minutes left on the clock.” As a result of his disdain of European diplomatic efforts and his insistence that Iran is only interested in holding negotiations with the United States, the opportunity for coordinated multilateral success is further diminished.
Trump’s Team: Players Who Are Not Compatible with One Another and Mixed Messages
Two major persons who are currently in informal touch with one another are Araghchi and Steve Witkoff, who is Trump’s Middle East ambassador. These two individuals represent different ends of the spectrum of expertise. Having extensive experience in the field of nuclear negotiations, Araghchi is well-versed on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Witkoff, on the other hand, is a prominent player in the real estate industry. He has no experience in the fields of diplomacy or nuclear issues, but he has earned Trump’s trust.
There has been some talk, but it does not appear that a formal agreement is imminent. There is no indication that any preliminary agreement would be able to prevent Israel from its goal of destroying Iran’s enrichment capability, and both parties appear to be skeptical of the other’s intentions.
The More Important Question: Is Diplomacy and War a Prelude to Each Other?
There is a widespread belief among observers that the two-week timetable that President Trump has set is not so much about practical diplomacy as it is about preparing public opinion and military assets for the possibility of an attack on Iran. The conversations between the United States and Iran may have been a smokescreen to divert attention away from Israel’s preparations for war, according to Araghchi himself.
There is a low probability that Iran will comply with Trump’s repeated demands for “unconditional surrender.” Robert Malley, a veteran of previous Iran discussions, made the observation that such a demand would be interpreted in Tehran as a choice between “suicide and taking their chances at being killed.” There is a greater likelihood that Iran’s leadership will gamble on resistance rather than succumb.
Can Diplomacy Still Be Effective? Off-Ramps That Could Be Considered
A few of specialists are of the opinion that a compromise at the eleventh hour is technically feasible. For example, a “voluntary” and “temporary” delay in the enrichment of uranium would provide room for additional negotiations. In spite of this, it is highly improbable that such a deal could be crafted and approved within a timescale of two weeks, given the current state of warlike conditions.
Even this kind of innovative diplomacy, which in the past would be polished in Vienna over the course of several months, appears to be out of reach in the current climate of mutual mistrust, bloodshed in the region, and political pressure on both sides within their own countries.
Concluding Remarks: Did We Make a Deal in Two Weeks? Just in Case It Is a Surrender
It is possible that Trump’s ultimatum may be carried out only in the event that Iran completely surrenders, which is an extremely unlikely conclusion. In the absence of significant diplomatic groundwork, reciprocal compromises, and a pause of hostilities, the idea that a complete nuclear agreement will emerge in fourteen days appears to be more of a delusion than a plan. With the tensions rising and the clock ticking down, the possibility of a full-scale confrontation is becoming more likely than the possibility of peace.